LAPSE:2023.23621
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.23621
Modeling the Price Stability and Predictability of Post Liberalized Gas Markets Using the Theory of Information
Anis Hoayek, Hassan Hamie, Hans Auer
March 27, 2023
Energy markets in the United States and Europe are getting more liberalized. The question of whether the liberalization of the gas industry in both markets has led to stable prices and less concentrated markets has appealed great interest among the scientific community. This study aims to measure the power and efficiency of an information structure contained in the gas prices time series. This assessment is useful to the oversight duty of regulators in such markets in the post liberalized era. First, econometric and mathematical methods based on game theory, records theory, and Shannon entropy are used to measure the following indicators: level of competition, price stability, and price uncertainty respectively—for both markets. Second, the level of information generated by these indicators is quantified using the information theory. The results of this innovative two-step approach show that the functioning of the European market requires the regulator’s intervention. This intervention is done by applying additional rules to enhance the competitive aspect of the market. This is not that case for the U.S. market. Also, the value of the information contained in both markets’ wholesale gas prices, although in asymmetric terms, is significant, and therefore proves to be an important instrument for the regulators.
Keywords
entropy, game theory-Cournot model, gas markets, information theory, records theory
Suggested Citation
Hoayek A, Hamie H, Auer H. Modeling the Price Stability and Predictability of Post Liberalized Gas Markets Using the Theory of Information. (2023). LAPSE:2023.23621
Author Affiliations
Hoayek A: Faculty of Science, Institute Alexander Grothendieck, University of Montpellier, 34090 Montpellier, France
Hamie H: Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives, Energy Economics Group (EEG), Vienna University of Technology, 1040 Vienna, Austria [ORCID]
Auer H: Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, Institute of Energy Systems and Electrical Drives, Energy Economics Group (EEG), Vienna University of Technology, 1040 Vienna, Austria [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
11
Article Number
E3012
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-06-11
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en13113012, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.23621
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doi:10.3390/en13113012
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Mar 27, 2023
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