Abstract
Research on the development of plants grown for energy purposes is important for ensuring the global energy supply and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and simulation is an important method to study its potential. This paper evaluated the marginal land that could be used to grow sugarcane in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. Based on the meteorological data from 2009 to 2017 in this region and field observations from sugarcane plantations, the sensitivity of the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) model parameters was analyzed by an extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and the APSIM model was validated for sugarcane phenology and yields. During the process of model validation, the value of the determination coefficient R2 of the observed and simulated values was between 0.76 and 0.91, and the consistency index D was between 0.91 and 0.97, indicating a good fit. On this basis, the APSIM sugarcane model was used to simulate the sugarcane production potential of the marginal land on a surface scale, and the distribution pattern of sugarcane production potential in the marginal land was obtained. The simulation results showed that if sugarcane was planted as an energy crop on the marginal land in Guangxi, it would likely yield approximately 42,522.05 × 104 t of cane stalks per year. It was estimated that the sugarcane grown on the marginal land plus 50% of the sugarcane grown on the cropland would be sufficient to produce approximately 3847.37 × 104 t of ethanol fuel. After meeting the demands for vehicle ethanol fuel in Guangxi, 3808.14 × 104 t of ethanol fuel would remain and could be exported to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations).