Abstract
Fiscal sustainability is an issue of great concern for governments globally and air pollution control has become an important factor affecting fiscal sustainability. This study aims to examine the impact of air pollution on fiscal sustainability in the short and long run. We conducted an empirical analysis based on air pollution and local government debt data on China’s prefecture-level cities in 2014−2019, using regression discontinuity design (RDD) and a panel data model. The results show that air pollution reduces the debt burden of governments in the short run. However, in the long run, addressing the negative impacts of air pollution adds to the debt burden of local governments, hindering fiscal sustainability. Fiscal freedom and the level of public services significantly moderate the negative impact of air pollution on fiscal sustainability. A higher level of fiscal freedom generally indicates a greater incentive for local governments to raise pollutant emission standards, strengthen the construction of green infrastructure, and subsidize green enterprises. Furthermore, a higher level of public services reflects better infrastructure and higher levels of investment in environmental protection, which help to reduce the negative impact of air pollution. The governments are suggested to take measures to effectively control air pollution, so as to enhance fiscal stability in the long run.