Abstract
We confront empirical data on citizen-led renewable energy capacities in Poland with results obtained from a meta-theoretical, empirical analysis of the national energy system. We elicit and rank essential disabling and enabling factors that explain the current low level of citizen energy in Poland. Altogether, we estimate the contributions of individual and collective prosumers as amounting to about 3.2 GW, with PV installations contributing more than 90%. Most activities are rather recent and come from individual prosumers. The factors with the greatest explanatory power are connected with decades of a rigid, centralized Polish energy system going hand in hand with social, regulatory, and technical lock-ins. Strikingly, factors connected with the heritage of, and transition from, the socialist period are less important, but they do explain why substantially more contributions originate from individuals compared to collective prosumers. Our results show that the currently rather small size of citizen-installed renewable capacities and the modest number of collective initiatives in Poland are due to several barriers. This paper summarizes them and provides a novel scientific method of ranking enabling and disabling factors. This approach might be helpful for policymakers and social actors, seeking an answer to the perspectives of development of citizen-installed renewable energy capacities in Poland and other former Eastern Bloc countries.