Occupancy-based lighting control strategies have been proven to be effective in diminishing offices’ energy consumption. These strategies have typically worked by controlling lighting at the room level but, recently, lighting systems have begun to be equipped with sensors on a more fine-grained level, enabling lighting control at the desk level. For some office cases, however, the savings gained using this strategy may not outweigh the costs and design efforts compared to room control. This is because, in some offices, individual occupancy patterns are similar, hence the difference in savings between desk and room control would be minimal. This study examined the influence of occupancy pattern variance within an office space on the relative energy savings of control strategies with different control zone sizes. We applied stochastic modeling to estimate the occupancy patterns, as this method can account for uncertainty. To validate our model, simulation results were compared to earlier studies and real measurements, which demonstrated that our simulations provided realistic occupancy patterns. Next, office cases varying in both job-function type distribution and office policy were investigated on energy savings potential to determine the influence of occupancy pattern variance. The relative energy savings potential of the different control strategies differed minimally for the test cases, suggesting that variations in individual occupancy patterns negligibly influence energy savings. In all cases, lighting control at the desk level showed a significantly higher energy savings potential than strategies with lower control zone granularity, suggesting that it is useful to implement occupancy-based lighting at the desk level in all office cases. This strategy should, thus, receive more attention from both researchers and lighting designers.