Abstract
The technical supply potential of biomass and the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are widely studied in the literature. However, relatively few studies have examined the role of biomass co-firing for future electricity in China by integratedly considering the economic supply potential and GHG effects. To fill this gap, we choose the Jiangsu Province in China as a case study and build up a partial equilibrium model with multiple agricultural commodities. Using this model combined with a life cycle assessment, we jointly determine the economic potential of the biomass supply for a biomass co-firing purpose and social benefits, including the agricultural producers’ surplus and GHG mitigation potential. The simulation incorporates the county-level biomass market of various crop residues as well as endogenous crop prices and transportation costs. We find that 0.7−12.5 M MT of residue-based biomass are economically viable for co-firing in coal-based power plants (up to 20%) at biomass prices between USD 50 and USD 100/MT. The net GHG savings achieved at these biomass prices are from 3.2 to 59 M MTCO2e. Our findings indicate that biomass co-firing with coal in power plants would be a feasible low-carbon energy transition pathway if the biomass price is above USD 50/MT. In addition to biomass prices, other factors such as crop yields, production costs of residues, and transportation costs are found to be impactful on the economic viability of biomass and GHG savings. Our results can inform policy to develop localized carbon reduction strategies in provinces with abundant biomass resources and a high share of coal-fired electricity.