Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to develop possible scenarios for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Serbia by switching from coal-fired to natural gas-fired electricity generation by the end of 2050. Accordingly, the challenges are to establish scenarios and identify measures that are best suited to all Western Balkan countries. In particular, this paper proposes a number of energy mix scenarios that offer some options for reducing CO2 emissions while maintaining an economic way of consumption. Projections of these reduction scenarios are obtained by combining the Kaya identity with the emission factor method. A simplified methodology based on sensitivity analysis is used as a source of data to estimate the nonstatistical uncertainty limits for the projections of the reduction scenarios. The sensitivity analysis is carried out using historical data from Serbia for the period from 1990 to 2019. In addition, a direct verification of the proposed methodology is performed based on historical data for 2020. The developed scenarios 1 and 2 show that CO2 emissions could be reduced by 10.94% and up to 74.44% from baseline in 1990, respectively. The obtained results are also contrasted with the data available for some other countries with similar experiences. Finally, it is found that the developed scenarios are achievable only at significantly decreased levels of coal-fired electricity generation.