Abstract
Subsurface interaction between critically stressed seismogenic faults and anthropogenic fluid injection activities has caused several earthquakes of concern over the last decade. Proactive detection of the reverse and strike-slip faults inherent in the Alberta Basin is difficult, while identification of faults likely to become seismogenic is even more challenging. We present a conceptual framework to evaluate the seismogenic potential of undetected faults, within the stratigraphic sequence of interest, during the site-selection stage of fluid injection projects. This method uses the geomechanical properties of formations present at sites of interest and their current state of stress to evaluate whether hosted faults are likely to be brittle or ductile since the hazard posed by faults in brittle-state formations is generally significantly higher than that of faults in ductile-state formations. We used data from approximately 3100 multi-stress triaxial tests to calculate the Mogi brittle−ductile state line for 51 major injection and confining formations in the Alberta Basin and in situ stress and pore pressure data from approximately 1200 diagnostic fracture-injection tests to assess the last-known brittle−ductile state of each formation. Analysis of these data shows that the major injection formations assessed in the Alberta Basin were in a ductile state, with some confining (caprock) formations in a brittle state at the time of the stress measurements. Once current site-specific in situ stress data are available, our method enables site-specific assessment of the current brittle−ductile state of geologic formations within the zone of influence of large-volume fluid-injection projects and an evaluation of the associated potential for fault seismogenesis.