Abstract
The integration of large-scale wind and photovoltaic power into modern power grids leads to an imbalance between the supply and demand for resources of the system, where this threatens the safety and stable operation of the grid. The traditional mode of grid dispatch and the capability of regulation of conventional thermal power units cannot satisfy the demands of grid connection for large-scale renewable energy, where the system requires the compensation and coordinated dispatch of flexible power sources. In light of this problem, this paper establishes a model to quantify the uncertainty in the forecasted outputs of wind and photovoltaic power. This is used to develop forecasts of the output of wind and photovoltaic power for several groups of scenarios, and predictions with the best complementarity are selected as a typical set of scenarios by means of their generation, reduction, and combination. By taking full advantage of the complementarity in the rates of regulation of conventional thermal power and concentrating solar power (CSP), a coordinated model of dispatch for wind power, photovoltaic power, CSP, and thermal power is established for a number of typical combinations of scenarios. The influence of uncertainty in the outputs of wind and photovoltaic power on the dispatch of the power grid is examined, and different modes of dispatch are formulated through simulations to analyze the superiority of the dispatch strategy proposed in this paper in terms of abandoned wind quantity, abandoned solar quantity, and the cost of dispatch.