LAPSE:2023.8406
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.8406
The Balance and Optimization Model of Coal Supply in the Flow Representation of Domestic Production and Imports: The Ukrainian Case Study
February 24, 2023
Abstract
The successful supply of an economy with coal fuel, for a country that carries out its large-scale extraction and import, is a complex production and logistics problem. Violations of the usual supply scheme in conditions of crises in the energy markets, international conflicts, etc., lead to the problem of simultaneous restructuring of the entire supply scheme. This requires changes in the directions and capacities of domestic production and imports. In this article, the above problem is solved by the economic and mathematical model of production type. The developed model includes subsystems of domestic production and import supply. The results of modeling economy supply with thermal coal for different values of demand are given. The model was used to determine the amounts of coal production for Ukraine with the structure of the coal industry of 2021 and under the condition of anthracite consumers’ transformation to the high volatile coal. Simulations have shown that eliminating the use of anthracite requires the modernization of existing coal mines. Under those conditions, the import of high volatile coal will amount to 3.751 million tons in 2030 and 11.8 million tons in 2035. The amounts of coking coal imports will be 5.46 million tons, 5.151 million tons, and 7.377 million tons in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively.
The successful supply of an economy with coal fuel, for a country that carries out its large-scale extraction and import, is a complex production and logistics problem. Violations of the usual supply scheme in conditions of crises in the energy markets, international conflicts, etc., lead to the problem of simultaneous restructuring of the entire supply scheme. This requires changes in the directions and capacities of domestic production and imports. In this article, the above problem is solved by the economic and mathematical model of production type. The developed model includes subsystems of domestic production and import supply. The results of modeling economy supply with thermal coal for different values of demand are given. The model was used to determine the amounts of coal production for Ukraine with the structure of the coal industry of 2021 and under the condition of anthracite consumers’ transformation to the high volatile coal. Simulations have shown that eliminating the use of anthracite requires the modernization of existing coal mines. Under those conditions, the import of high volatile coal will amount to 3.751 million tons in 2030 and 11.8 million tons in 2035. The amounts of coking coal imports will be 5.46 million tons, 5.151 million tons, and 7.377 million tons in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively.
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Keywords
coal supply, domestic production and imports, flow representation, model of production type
Subject
Suggested Citation
Bilan T, Kaplin M, Makarov V, Perov M, Novitskii I, Zaporozhets A, Havrysh V, Nitsenko V. The Balance and Optimization Model of Coal Supply in the Flow Representation of Domestic Production and Imports: The Ukrainian Case Study. (2023). LAPSE:2023.8406
Author Affiliations
Bilan T: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Kaplin M: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Makarov V: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Perov M: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Novitskii I: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Zaporozhets A: Department of Monitoring and Diagnostics of Energy Objects, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine; Department of Environmental Protection Technologies and Radiation Safety, State Institution “The Institute of Environmental G [ORCID]
Havrysh V: Department of Tractors and Agricultural Machines, Operating and Maintenance, Mykolaiv National Agrarian University, 54020 Mykolaiv, Ukraine [ORCID]
Nitsenko V: Department of Entrepreneurship and Marketing, Institute of Economics and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical Oil and Gas University, 76019 Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine; SCIRE Foundation, 00867 Warsaw, Poland [ORCID]
Kaplin M: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Makarov V: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Perov M: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Novitskii I: Department of the Optimization of the Fuel Bases Development, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine
Zaporozhets A: Department of Monitoring and Diagnostics of Energy Objects, Institute of General Energy of NAS of Ukraine, 03150 Kyiv, Ukraine; Department of Environmental Protection Technologies and Radiation Safety, State Institution “The Institute of Environmental G [ORCID]
Havrysh V: Department of Tractors and Agricultural Machines, Operating and Maintenance, Mykolaiv National Agrarian University, 54020 Mykolaiv, Ukraine [ORCID]
Nitsenko V: Department of Entrepreneurship and Marketing, Institute of Economics and Management, Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical Oil and Gas University, 76019 Ivano-Frankivsk, Ukraine; SCIRE Foundation, 00867 Warsaw, Poland [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
21
First Page
8103
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-10-31
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en15218103, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.8406
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https://doi.org/10.3390/en15218103
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Feb 24, 2023
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