LAPSE:2023.6990
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.6990
Evaluation of Weather Information for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting with Various Types of Models
Ju-Yeol Ryu, Bora Lee, Sungho Park, Seonghyeon Hwang, Hyemin Park, Changhyeong Lee, Dohyeon Kwon
February 24, 2023
The rising share of renewable energy in the energy mix brings with it new challenges such as power curtailment and lack of reliable large-scale energy grid. The forecasting of wind power generation for provision of flexibility, defined as the ability to absorb and manage fluctuations in the demand and supply by storing energy at times of surplus and releasing it when needed, is important. In this study, short-term forecasting models of wind power generation were developed using the conventional time-series method and hybrid models using support vector regression (SVR) based on rolling origin recalibration. For the application of the methodology, the meteorological database from Korea Meteorological Administration and actual operating data of a wind power turbine (2.3 MW) from 1 January to 31 December 2015 were used. The results showed that the proposed SVR model has higher forecasting accuracy than the existing time-series methods. In addition, the conventional time-series model has high accuracy under proper curation of wind turbine operation data. Therefore, the analysis results reveal that data curation and weather information are as important as the model for wind power forecasting.
Keywords
linear regression, rolling origin, support vector regression, time-series model, wind power forecasting
Suggested Citation
Ryu JY, Lee B, Park S, Hwang S, Park H, Lee C, Kwon D. Evaluation of Weather Information for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting with Various Types of Models. (2023). LAPSE:2023.6990
Author Affiliations
Ryu JY: Institute for Advanced Engineering, Yongin 17180, Republic of Korea [ORCID]
Lee B: Institute of Health & Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea [ORCID]
Park S: Institute for Advanced Engineering, Yongin 17180, Republic of Korea
Hwang S: Institute for Advanced Engineering, Yongin 17180, Republic of Korea
Park H: Institute for Advanced Engineering, Yongin 17180, Republic of Korea [ORCID]
Lee C: Institute for Advanced Engineering, Yongin 17180, Republic of Korea
Kwon D: Institute for Advanced Engineering, Yongin 17180, Republic of Korea
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
24
First Page
9403
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-12-12
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en15249403, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en15249403
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Feb 24, 2023
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