Abstract
Compared with the ordinary merchant ship building, the concentralized distribution in cruise building is more complex. Plan change is a common phenomenon in cruise building, and it is easy to lead to mismatch between production and logistics, resulting in risks such as production schedule delay and inventory backlog. In order to reduce the adverse effects of plan change on the shipyard, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study on the risks of a centralized distribution logistics plan. Based on the analysis of the composition of the centralized distribution logistics planning system, risk factors in different plan links are identified in this paper. A system dynamic model is constructed to simulate the propagation of five basic types of planning risk, including procurement plan, warehousing plan, pallet concentralization plan, distribution plan and production plan. In the case study of HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) materials, the values of risk factors are estimated though consulting experts with questionnaire. The weight of each risk factor in each subsystem is calculated by a method combined with analytic hierarchy process and coefficient of variation method. Through the simulation experiments carried out in Vensim, it is found that both inventory backlog risk and cruise construction schedule delay risk increase with the increasement of estimated values of risk factors, which is an effective proof of the rationality of the model, and that the most sensitive risk factor for both the two kinds of risk is production planning risk.