Abstract
Negawatt trading is expected to improve energy efficiency via the prediction of peak demands and power-saving requests. However, the amount of power saved by consumers is not stable. The accurate prediction of demands and making appropriate requests with respect to power saving are difficult obstacles that need to be overcome in order to attain useful negawatt trading processes. To increase the accuracy of predictions and requests, earlier research suggests some methods or linear problems. On the other hand, the investigation of factors that affect consumption is important for correcting the current instability. In this research study, weather changes including temperature, time passing, and the consciousness of consumers are considered as important factors against electricity demands. In this paper, we propose a behavioral model of consumers using weather data. By using this behavioral model, the effectiveness of the suggested methods in earlier research for improving negawatt trading and the uncertainty of negawatts caused by weather changes is investigated.