LAPSE:2023.36068
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.36068
Research on Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on DES-CGSSA-BP Model
Lu Fang, Jianping Yue, Yin Xing
June 9, 2023
A landslide is a type of natural disaster that has the highest frequency, the widest distribution and the heaviest losses worldwide; landslides seriously threaten human life and property and major engineering facilities. Therefore, it is important to improve landslide displacement prediction technology to avoid and mitigate landslide disasters. A landslide displacement prediction method based on a chaotic Gaussian mutation sparrow search algorithm-optimised BP neural network (CG-SSA-BP) is proposed to address the problems of the traditional sparrow search algorithm (SSA)-optimised BP (SSA-BP) neural network; it tends to fall into local optima, and it has slow convergence and a low prediction accuracy for landslide displacement prediction. This paper takes the Baishui River landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area as the research object, and the double exponential smoothing (DES) method is used to decompose the landslide displacement into a trend term and a periodic term to solve the nonlinear landslide system problem. The results show that the prediction model based on CG-SSA-BP has a better prediction accuracy and better stability compared with the model based on SSA-BP.
Keywords
BP neural network model, chaotic Gaussian mutation sparrow search algorithm (CGSSA), double exponential smoothing (DES), landslide displacement, prediction accuracy
Suggested Citation
Fang L, Yue J, Xing Y. Research on Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on DES-CGSSA-BP Model. (2023). LAPSE:2023.36068
Author Affiliations
Fang L: School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China; School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Jiangsu Maritime Institute, Nanjing 211199, China
Yue J: School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
Xing Y: School of Geography Science and Geomatics Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, Suzhou 215009, China
Journal Name
Processes
Volume
11
Issue
5
First Page
1559
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-05-19
Published Version
ISSN
2227-9717
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Original Submission
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PII: pr11051559, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.36068
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doi:10.3390/pr11051559
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Jun 9, 2023
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Jun 9, 2023
 
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Calvin Tsay
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