LAPSE:2023.35468
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.35468
A Hybrid Algorithm-Level Ensemble Model for Imbalanced Credit Default Prediction in the Energy Industry
Kui Wang, Jie Wan, Gang Li, Hao Sun
April 28, 2023
Credit default prediction for the energy industry is essential to promoting the healthy development of the energy industry in China. While previous studies have constructed various credit default prediction models with brilliant performance, the class-imbalance problem in the credit default dataset cannot be ignored, where the numbers of credit default cases are usually much smaller than the number of non-default ones. To address the class-imbalance problem, we proposed a novel CT-XGBoost model, which adds to XGBoost with two algorithm-level methods for class imbalance, including the cost-sensitive strategy and threshold method. Based on the credit default dataset consisting of energy corporates in western China, which suffers from the class-imbalance problem, the CT-XGBoost model achieves better performance than the conventional models. The results indicate that the proposed model can efficiently alleviate the inherent class-imbalance problem in the credit default dataset. Moreover, we analyze how the prediction performance is influenced by different parameter settings in the cost-sensitive strategy and threshold method. This study can help market investors and regulators precisely assess the credit risk in the energy industry and provides theoretical guidance to solving the class-imbalance problem in credit default prediction.
Keywords
class imbalance, cost-sensitive, credit default prediction, energy industry, threshold method
Subject
Suggested Citation
Wang K, Wan J, Li G, Sun H. A Hybrid Algorithm-Level Ensemble Model for Imbalanced Credit Default Prediction in the Energy Industry. (2023). LAPSE:2023.35468
Author Affiliations
Wang K: School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Wan J: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Li G: School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China [ORCID]
Sun H: Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
14
First Page
5206
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-07-18
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en15145206, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en15145206
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