LAPSE:2023.34844
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.34844
Review of Policies for Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Transition and Qualitative Evaluation of Impacts and Influences Using a Conceptual Dynamic Model
April 28, 2023
Indonesia’s final energy demand is projected to increase by 70% in the next decade, with electricity expected to account for 32%. The increasing electricity demand poses a potential threat to national emissions reduction targets since fossil fuels generated 86% of the electricity in 2018, associated to 50% of the national CO2 emissions. Indonesia plans to reduce its CO2 emissions by 29% by increasing the total electricity generated from renewables, using a set of market-based and regulatory policies. However, economic, social, and environmental issues may arise from the widespread adoption of renewable energy. This study explores the economic, social, and environmental effects of renewable energy policies in the electricity sector. Our work presents an advance over previous studies that attempted to understand the electricity sector energy transition from a system perspective by exploring the structural feedback between it and economic, energy, and environmental systems. This enables the assessment of different energy policies using more macro indicators, which further emphasize the novelty of our work. A combination of system dynamics modelling and a policy analysis framework was applied to explore these issues. Our study proposes a dynamic hypothesis that the price of energy increases over time, in the absence of substitution, becoming a limiting factor in the transition to renewables in the electricity sector. The fiscal budget was found to be a bottleneck for renewable energy adoption in the electricity sector in Indonesia. We found that a fossil fuel depletion premium could be a potential supporting policy to enable the smooth phasing-out of fossil fuels and support a sustainable energy transition.
Keywords
depletion premium, energy transition, policy analysis framework, system dynamics
Suggested Citation
Zahari TN, McLellan BC. Review of Policies for Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Transition and Qualitative Evaluation of Impacts and Influences Using a Conceptual Dynamic Model. (2023). LAPSE:2023.34844
Author Affiliations
Zahari TN: Energy Economics Research Group, Department of Socio-Environmental Energy Science, Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan [ORCID]
McLellan BC: Energy Economics Research Group, Department of Socio-Environmental Energy Science, Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
8
First Page
3406
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-12
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en16083406, Publication Type: Review
Record Map
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.34844
This Record
External Link

doi:10.3390/en16083406
Publisher Version
Download
Files
[Download 1v1.pdf] (2.2 MB)
Apr 28, 2023
Main Article
License
CC BY 4.0
Meta
Record Statistics
Record Views
81
Version History
[v1] (Original Submission)
Apr 28, 2023
 
Verified by curator on
Apr 28, 2023
This Version Number
v1
Citations
Most Recent
This Version
URL Here
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2023.34844
 
Original Submitter
Auto Uploader for LAPSE
Links to Related Works
Directly Related to This Work
Publisher Version