Abstract
The quantitative evaluation of cluster wind power output volatility and source-load timing matching is vital to the planning and operation of the future power system dominated by new energy. However, the existing volatility evaluation methods of cluster wind power output do not fully consider timing volatility, or are not suitable for small sample data scenarios. Meanwhile, the existing source-load timing matching evaluation indicator ignores the impact of wind power permeability on the timing matching degree between wind power output and load. Therefore, the authors propose quantitative evaluation methods of cluster wind power output volatility and source-load timing matching in regional power grid. Firstly, the volatility-based smoothing coefficient is defined to quantitatively evaluate the smoothing effect of wind-farm cluster power output. Then, the source-load timing matching coefficient considering wind power permeability is proposed to quantitatively evaluate the timing matching degree of regional wind power output and load, and the corresponding function model of volatility-based smoothing coefficient and source-load timing matching coefficient is established. Finally, the validity and applicability of the proposed methods are verified by MATLAB software based on the actual power output of 10 wind farms and actual grid load in a certain grid dispatching cross-section of northeast China. The results demonstrated that the proposed volatility-based smoothing coefficient can accurately represent the smoothing effect of wind farm cluster power output while maintaining the volatility continuity of wind power output time series and without affect from the data sample size. The source-load timing matching coefficient can accurately characterize the difference in the timing matching degree between wind power output and grid load under different wind power permeability and the influence degree on grid load.