LAPSE:2023.33868
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.33868
Optimal Daily Trading of Battery Operations Using Arbitrage Spreads
April 24, 2023
An important revenue stream for electric battery operators is often arbitraging the hourly price spreads in the day-ahead auction. The optimal approach to this is challenging if risk is a consideration as this requires the estimation of density functions. Since the hourly prices are not normal and not independent, creating spread densities from the difference of separately estimated price densities is generally intractable. Thus, forecasts of all intraday hourly spreads were directly specified as an upper triangular matrix containing densities. The model was a flexible four-parameter distribution used to produce dynamic parameter estimates conditional upon exogenous factors, most importantly wind, solar and the day-ahead demand forecasts. These forecasts supported the optimal daily scheduling of a storage facility, operating on single and multiple cycles per day. The optimization is innovative in its use of spread trades rather than hourly prices, which this paper argues, is more attractive in reducing risk. In contrast to the conventional approach of trading the daily peak and trough, multiple trades are found to be profitable and opportunistic depending upon the weather forecasts.
Keywords
Batteries, electricity, spreads, trading
Suggested Citation
Abramova E, Bunn D. Optimal Daily Trading of Battery Operations Using Arbitrage Spreads. (2023). LAPSE:2023.33868
Author Affiliations
Abramova E: Department of Management Science and Operations, London Business School, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4SA, UK [ORCID]
Bunn D: Department of Management Science and Operations, London Business School, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4SA, UK [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
16
First Page
4931
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-08-12
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14164931, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en14164931
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Apr 24, 2023
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