LAPSE:2023.32143
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.32143
Mineral Policy within the Framework of Limited Critical Resources and a Green Energy Transition
April 19, 2023
The green energy transition is associated with the use of a wide range of metals and minerals that are exhaustible. Most of these minerals are limited in access due to small resource fields, their concentration in several locations and a broader scale of industry usage which is not limited exclusively to energy and environmental sectors. This article classifies 17 minerals that are critical in the green energy transition concerning the 10 main technologies. The following classification signs of metal resources were used: (1) the absolute amount of metals used in the current period for energy; (2) projected annual demand in 2050 from energy technologies as a percentage of the current rate; (3) the number of technologies where there is a need for an individual metal; (4) cumulative emissions of CO2, which are associated with metal production; (5) period of reserves availability; (6) the number of countries that produced more than 1% of global production; (7) countries with the maximum annual metal productivity. The ranking of metals according to these characteristics was carried out using two scenarios, and the index of the availability of each mineral was determined. The lowest availability index values (up to 0.15) were calculated for cobalt, graphite and lithium, which are key battery minerals for energy storage. Low indices (up to 0.20) were also obtained for iron, nickel and chromium. The calculation of the availability index for each mineral was enhanced with linear trend modelling and the fuzzy logic technique. There are two scenarios of demand−supply commodity systems with a pre-developed forecast up to 2050: basic independent parameter probability and balanced fuzzy sum. Both scenarios showed comparable results, but the second one highlighted supply chain importance. Generally, the lowest availability index values (up to 0.15) were calculated for cobalt, graphite and lithium, which are key battery minerals for energy storage. Low indices (up to 0.20) were also obtained for iron, nickel and chromium. The fuzzy logic model helped to reveal two scenarios up to 2050. The two scenarios presented in the current research expose a high level of uncertainty of the projected 2050 forecast.
Keywords
depletion, fuzzy logic, index of availability, linear trend, minerals
Suggested Citation
Nate S, Bilan Y, Kurylo M, Lyashenko O, Napieralski P, Kharlamova G. Mineral Policy within the Framework of Limited Critical Resources and a Green Energy Transition. (2023). LAPSE:2023.32143
Author Affiliations
Nate S: Department of International Relations, Political Science and Security Studies, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, 550324 Sibiu, Romania [ORCID]
Bilan Y: Faculty of Management, Rzeszów University of Technology, 35-959 Rzeszów, Poland [ORCID]
Kurylo M: Department of Mineral Deposits, Institute of Geology, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 03022 Kyiv, Ukraine [ORCID]
Lyashenko O: Department of Economic Cybernetics, the Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 03022 Kyiv, Ukraine [ORCID]
Napieralski P: Institute of Information Technology, Lodz University of Technology, Wólczańska 215, 90-924 Lodz, Poland [ORCID]
Kharlamova G: Department of Economic Cybernetics, the Faculty of Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 03022 Kyiv, Ukraine [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
9
First Page
2688
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-05-07
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en14092688, Publication Type: Journal Article
Record Map
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.32143
This Record
External Link

doi:10.3390/en14092688
Publisher Version
Download
Files
[Download 1v1.pdf] (6.9 MB)
Apr 19, 2023
Main Article
License
CC BY 4.0
Meta
Record Statistics
Record Views
71
Version History
[v1] (Original Submission)
Apr 19, 2023
 
Verified by curator on
Apr 19, 2023
This Version Number
v1
Citations
Most Recent
This Version
URL Here
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2023.32143
 
Original Submitter
Auto Uploader for LAPSE
Links to Related Works
Directly Related to This Work
Publisher Version