LAPSE:2023.32033
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.32033
Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience
Osmel Manzano, Jose Luis Saboin
April 19, 2023
This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the resources received from the oil sector. We explored the interaction of oil policy and fiscal policy using such intergenerational accounting model. We argue that the way in which tax revenues (both, those coming from oil and those who do not) are used today can affect voters preferences on how they will be used tomorrow. These interactions could explain certain outcomes. In particular, the model could explain why the sector was open for investment in 1991 and then “re-nationalized” in 2001. Results suggest that when fiscal policy could leave an important burden to future generations, voters seem to favor a more tax-oriented oil policy, leaving the oil in the subsoil.
Keywords
fiscal policy, fiscal voracity, intergenerational accounting, oil expropriation cycles, oil policy, Venezuela
Suggested Citation
Manzano O, Saboin JL. Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience. (2023). LAPSE:2023.32033
Author Affiliations
Manzano O: Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC 20577, USA
Saboin JL: Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC 20577, USA; Department of Economics, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
9
First Page
2574
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-04-30
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14092574, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.32033
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doi:10.3390/en14092574
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Apr 19, 2023
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