It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Sven Teske; Thomas Pregger; Sonja Simon; Tobias Naegler; Johannes Pagenkopf; Özcan Deniz; Bent van den Adel; Kate Dooley; Malte Meinshausen

LAPSE

Living Archive for Process Systems Engineering

LAPSE:2023.31582

Published Article

LAPSE:2023.31582

It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, Johannes Pagenkopf, Özcan Deniz, Bent van den Adel, Kate Dooley, Malte Meinshausen

April 19, 2023

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.

Record ID

LAPSE:2023.31582

Keywords

1.5 °C mitigation pathway, 100% renewable energy, climate change, CO2 emission, energy scenario, energy transition, GHG mitigation, non-energy emission, open access book, Paris Agreement

Subject

Energy Policy

Suggested Citation

Teske S, Pregger T, Simon S, Naegler T, Pagenkopf J, Deniz Ö, van den Adel B, Dooley K, Meinshausen M. It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31582

Author Affiliations

Teske S: Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), 235 Jones Street, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia [ORCID]
Pregger T: Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38−40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany [ORCID]
Simon S: Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38−40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany [ORCID]
Naegler T: Department of Energy Systems Analysis, Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38−40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany [ORCID]
Pagenkopf J: Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38−40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany [ORCID]
Deniz Ö: Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38−40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
van den Adel B: Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Pfaffenwaldring 38−40, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
Dooley K: Australian−German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Meinshausen M: Australian−German Climate and Energy College, Level 1, 187 Grattan Street, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia

Journal Name

Energies

Volume

14

Issue

8

First Page

2103

Year

2021

Publication Date

2021-04-09