LAPSE:2023.31529
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31529
Weather Related Fault Prediction in Minimally Monitored Distribution Networks
April 19, 2023
Power distribution networks are increasingly challenged by ageing plant, environmental extremes and previously unforeseen operational factors. The combination of high loading and weather conditions is responsible for large numbers of recurring faults in legacy plants which have an impact on service quality. Owing to their scale and dispersed nature, it is prohibitively expensive to intensively monitor distribution networks to capture the electrical context these disruptions occur in, making it difficult to forestall recurring faults. In this paper, localised weather data are shown to support fault prediction on distribution networks. Operational data are temporally aligned with meteorological observations to identify recurring fault causes with the potentially complex relation between them learned from historical fault records. Five years of data from a UK Distribution Network Operator is used to demonstrate the approach at both HV and LV distribution network levels with results showing the ability to predict the occurrence of a weather related fault at a given substation considering only meteorological observations. Unifying a diverse range of previously identified fault relations in a single ensemble model and accompanying the predicted network conditions with an uncertainty measure would allow a network operator to manage their network more effectively in the long term and take evasive action for imminent events over shorter timescales.
Keywords
data analytics, distribution network, fault prediction, Machine Learning, weather faults
Suggested Citation
Tsioumpri E, Stephen B, McArthur SDJ. Weather Related Fault Prediction in Minimally Monitored Distribution Networks. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31529
Author Affiliations
Tsioumpri E: Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XW, UK [ORCID]
Stephen B: Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XW, UK [ORCID]
McArthur SDJ: Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow G1 1XW, UK [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
8
First Page
2053
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-04-07
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14082053, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31529
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doi:10.3390/en14082053
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Apr 19, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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