LAPSE:2023.31420
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31420
Wind Forecast at Medium Voltage Distribution Networks
Herbert Amezquita, Pedro M. S. Carvalho, Hugo Morais
April 18, 2023
Due to the intermittent and variable nature of wind, Wind Power Generation Forecast (WPGF) has become an essential task for power system operators who are looking for reliable wind penetration into the electric grid. Since there is a need to forecast wind power generation accurately, the main contribution of this paper is the development, implementation, and comparison of WPGF methods in a framework to be used by distribution system operators (DSOs). The methodology applied comprised five stages: pre-processing, feature selection, forecasting models, post-processing, and validation, using the historical wind power generation data (measured at secondary substations) of 20 wind farms connected to the medium voltage (MV) distribution network in Portugal. After comparing the accuracy of eight different models in terms of their relative root mean square error (RRMSE), extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST) appeared as the best-suited forecasting method for wind power generation. The best average RRMSE achieved by the proposed XGBOOST model for 1-year training (January−December of 2020) and 6 months forecast (January−June of 2021) corresponds to 13.48%, outperforming the predictions of the Portuguese DSO by 20%.
Keywords
extreme gradient boosting (XGBOOST), medium voltage distribution network, secondary substations, short-term forecasting, wind power generation forecast
Suggested Citation
Amezquita H, Carvalho PMS, Morais H. Wind Forecast at Medium Voltage Distribution Networks. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31420
Author Affiliations
Amezquita H: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico—IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal; INESC-ID—Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investigação e Desenvolvimento, 1000-029 Lisboa, Portu
Carvalho PMS: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico—IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal; INESC-ID—Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investigação e Desenvolvimento, 1000-029 Lisboa, Portu [ORCID]
Morais H: Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico—IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal; INESC-ID—Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investigação e Desenvolvimento, 1000-029 Lisboa, Portu [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
6
First Page
2887
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-03-21
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16062887, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31420
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doi:10.3390/en16062887
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Apr 18, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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