LAPSE:2023.31118
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.31118
Multiple Novel Decomposition Techniques for Time Series Forecasting: Application to Monthly Forecasting of Electricity Consumption in Pakistan
April 18, 2023
In today’s modern world, monthly forecasts of electricity consumption are vital in planning the generation and distribution of energy utilities. However, the properties of these time series are so complex that they are difficult to model directly. Thus, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of forecasting monthly electricity consumption by comparing several decomposition techniques followed by various time series models. To this end, first, we decompose the electricity consumption time series into three new subseries: the long-term trend series, the seasonal series, and the stochastic series, using the three different proposed decomposition methods. Second, to forecast each subseries with various popular time series models, all their possible combinations are considered. Finally, the forecast results of each subseries are summed up to obtain the final forecast results. The proposed modeling and forecasting framework is applied to data on Pakistan’s monthly electricity consumption from January 1990 to June 2020. The one-month-ahead out-of-sample forecast results (descriptive, statistical test, and graphical analysis) for the considered data suggest that the proposed methodology gives a highly accurate and efficient gain. It is also shown that the proposed decomposition methods outperform the benchmark ones and increase the performance of final model forecasts. In addition, the final forecasting models produce the lowest mean error, performing significantly better than those reported in the literature. Finally, we believe that the framework proposed for modeling and forecasting can also be used to solve other forecasting problems in the real world that have similar features.
Keywords
decomposition methods, electricity consumption, monthly forecasting, times series models
Suggested Citation
Iftikhar H, Bibi N, Canas Rodrigues P, López-Gonzales JL. Multiple Novel Decomposition Techniques for Time Series Forecasting: Application to Monthly Forecasting of Electricity Consumption in Pakistan. (2023). LAPSE:2023.31118
Author Affiliations
Iftikhar H: Department of Mathematics, City University of Science and Information Technology Peshawar, Peshawar 25000, Pakistan; Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan [ORCID]
Bibi N: Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan
Canas Rodrigues P: Department of Statistics, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador 40170-110, Brazil [ORCID]
López-Gonzales JL: UPG Ingeniería y Arquitectura, Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Peruana Unión, Lima 15464, Peru [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
6
First Page
2579
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-03-09
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16062579, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.31118
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doi:10.3390/en16062579
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Apr 18, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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