LAPSE:2023.30959
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.30959
Day-Ahead Electricity Market Price Forecasting Considering the Components of the Electricity Market Price; Using Demand Decomposition, Fuel Cost, and the Kernel Density Estimation
April 17, 2023
This paper aims to improve the forecasting of electricity market prices by incorporating the characteristics of electricity market prices that are discretely affected by the fuel cost per unit, the unit generation cost of the large-scale generators, and the demand. In this paper, two new techniques are introduced. The first technique applies feature generation to the label and forecasts the transformed new variables, which are then post-processed by inverse transformation, considering the characteristic of the fuel types of marginal generators or prices through two variables: fuel cost per unit by the representative fuel type and argument of the maximum of Probability Density Function (PDF) calculated by Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) from the previous price. The second technique applies decomposition to the demand, followed by a feature selection process to apply the major decomposed feature. It is verified using gain or SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value in the feature selection process. In the case study, both showed improvement in all indicators. In the Korean Electricity Market, the unit generation cost for each generator is calculated monthly, resulting in a step-wise change in the electricity market price depending on the monthly fuel cost. Feature generation using the fuel cost per unit improved the forecasting by eliminating monthly volatility caused by the fuel costs and reducing the error that occurs at the beginning of the month. It improved the Mean Squared Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.83[%]. Using the argument of the maximum PDF calculated by KDE improved the forecasting during the test period, where discrete monthly variations were not included. The resulting MAPE was 3.82[%]. Combining these two techniques resulted in the most accurate performance compared to the other techniques used, which had a MAPE of 3.49[%]. The MAPE of the forecasting with the decomposed data of the original price was 4.41[%].
Keywords
Artificial Intelligence, data preprocessing, decomposition, electricity market, feature selection, price forecast
Suggested Citation
Jin A, Lee D, Park JB, Roh JH. Day-Ahead Electricity Market Price Forecasting Considering the Components of the Electricity Market Price; Using Demand Decomposition, Fuel Cost, and the Kernel Density Estimation. (2023). LAPSE:2023.30959
Author Affiliations
Jin A: Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Republic of Korea [ORCID]
Lee D: Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Republic of Korea [ORCID]
Park JB: Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Republic of Korea
Roh JH: Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Republic of Korea [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
7
First Page
3222
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-04-03
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16073222, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.30959
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doi:10.3390/en16073222
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Apr 17, 2023
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