LAPSE:2023.30259
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.30259
Effect of Daily Forecasting Frequency on Rolling-Horizon-Based EMS Reducing Electrical Demand Uncertainty in Microgrids
April 14, 2023
Accurate forecasting is a crucial task for energy management systems (EMSs) used in microgrids. Despite forecasting models destined to EMSs having been largely investigated, the analysis of criteria for the practical execution of this task, in the framework of an energy management algorithm, has not been properly investigated yet. On such a basis, this paper aims at exploring the effect of daily forecasting frequency on the performance of rolling-horizon EMSs devised to reduce demand uncertainty in microgrids by adhering to a reference planned profile. Specifically, the performance of a sample EMS, where the forecasting task is committed to a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) artificial neural network (ANN), has been studied under different daily forecasting frequencies, revealing a representative trend relating the forecasting execution frequency in the EMS and the reduction of uncertainty in the electrical demand. On the basis of such a trend, it is possible to establish how often is convenient to repeat the forecasting task for obtaining increasing performance of the EMS. The obtained results have been generalized by extending the analysis to different test scenarios, whose results have been found coherent with the identified trend.
Keywords
demand uncertainty, energy management system, forecasting error, microgrids, rolling horizon
Suggested Citation
La Tona G, Di Piazza MC, Luna M. Effect of Daily Forecasting Frequency on Rolling-Horizon-Based EMS Reducing Electrical Demand Uncertainty in Microgrids. (2023). LAPSE:2023.30259
Author Affiliations
La Tona G: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Istituto di Ingegneria del Mare (INM), via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy [ORCID]
Di Piazza MC: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Istituto di Ingegneria del Mare (INM), via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy [ORCID]
Luna M: Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Istituto di Ingegneria del Mare (INM), via Ugo La Malfa 153, 90146 Palermo, Italy [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
6
First Page
1598
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-03-13
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14061598, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.30259
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doi:10.3390/en14061598
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Apr 14, 2023
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CC BY 4.0
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