Abstract
Heating and cooling sectors contribute to approximately 50% of energy consumption in the European Union. Considering the fact that heating is mostly based on fossil fuels, it is then evident that its decarbonization is one of the crucial tasks for achieving climate change prevention goals. At the same time, electricity sectors across the globe are undergoing a rapid transformation in order to accommodate the growing capacities of non-dispatchable solar and wind generators. One of the proposed solutions to achieve heating sector decarbonization and non-dispatchable generators power system integration is sector coupling, where heat pumps are perceived as a perfect fit. Air source heat pumps enable a rapid improvement in local air quality by replacing conventional heating sources, but at the same time, they put additional stress on the power system. The emissions associated with heat pump operation are a combination of power system energy mix, weather conditions and heat pump technology. Taking the above into consideration, this paper presents an approach to estimate which of the mentioned factors has the highest impact on heat pump emissions. Due to low air quality during the heating season, undergoing a power system transformation (with a relatively low share of renewables) in a case study located in Poland is considered. The results of the conducted analysis revealed that for a scenario where an air-to-water (A/W) heat pump is supposed to cover space and domestic hot water load, its CO2 emissions are shaped by country-specific energy mix (55.2%), heat pump technology (coefficient of performance) (33.9%) and, to a lesser extent, by changing climate (10.9%). The outcome of this paper can be used by policy makers in designing decarbonization strategies and funding distribution.