LAPSE:2023.29878
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.29878
Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning
April 14, 2023
Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia’s energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country’s electricity needs during 2015−2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country’s exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD.
Keywords
electricity demand scenarios, energy planning, on-grid and off-grid technologies, OnSSET, OSeMOSYS, SDG7
Suggested Citation
Pappis I, Sahlberg A, Walle T, Broad O, Eludoyin E, Howells M, Usher W. Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning. (2023). LAPSE:2023.29878
Author Affiliations
Pappis I: Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden [ORCID]
Sahlberg A: Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden [ORCID]
Walle T: Energy Center, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 385, Ethiopia
Broad O: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK [ORCID]
Eludoyin E: UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK [ORCID]
Howells M: Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TT, UK; Center for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BU, UK
Usher W: Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
4
First Page
1209
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-02-23
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14041209, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en14041209
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Apr 14, 2023
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