LAPSE:2023.29503
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.29503
Probabilistic and Risk-Informed Life Extension Assessment of Wind Turbine Structural Components
April 13, 2023
Abstract
Reassessment of the fatigue life for wind turbine structural components is typically performed using deterministic methods with the same partial safety factors as used for the original design. However, in relation to life extension, the conditions are generally different from the assumptions used for calibration of partial safety factors; and using a deterministic assessment method with these partial safety factors might not lead to optimal decisions. In this paper, the deterministic assessment method is compared to probabilistic and risk-based approaches, and the economic feasibility is assessed for a case wind farm. Using the models also used for calibration of partial safety factors in IEC61400-1 ed. 4, it is found that the probabilistic assessment generally leads to longer additional fatigue life than the deterministic assessment method. The longer duration of the extended life can make life extension feasible in more situations. The risk-based model is applied to include the risk of failure directly in the economic feasibility assessment and it is found that the reliability can be much lower than the target for new turbines, without compromising the economic feasibility.
Reassessment of the fatigue life for wind turbine structural components is typically performed using deterministic methods with the same partial safety factors as used for the original design. However, in relation to life extension, the conditions are generally different from the assumptions used for calibration of partial safety factors; and using a deterministic assessment method with these partial safety factors might not lead to optimal decisions. In this paper, the deterministic assessment method is compared to probabilistic and risk-based approaches, and the economic feasibility is assessed for a case wind farm. Using the models also used for calibration of partial safety factors in IEC61400-1 ed. 4, it is found that the probabilistic assessment generally leads to longer additional fatigue life than the deterministic assessment method. The longer duration of the extended life can make life extension feasible in more situations. The risk-based model is applied to include the risk of failure directly in the economic feasibility assessment and it is found that the reliability can be much lower than the target for new turbines, without compromising the economic feasibility.
Record ID
Keywords
economic optimization, end-of-life issues, fatigue, life extension, probabilistic modeling, remaining useful life, risk, wind turbines
Subject
Suggested Citation
Nielsen JS, Miller-Branovacki L, Carriveau R. Probabilistic and Risk-Informed Life Extension Assessment of Wind Turbine Structural Components. (2023). LAPSE:2023.29503
Author Affiliations
Nielsen JS: Department of the Built Environment, Aalborg University, Thomas Manns Vej 23, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark [ORCID]
Miller-Branovacki L: Environmental Energy Institute, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada
Carriveau R: Environmental Energy Institute, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada
Miller-Branovacki L: Environmental Energy Institute, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada
Carriveau R: Environmental Energy Institute, University of Windsor, 401 Sunset Avenue, Windsor, ON N9B 3P4, Canada
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
4
First Page
821
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-02-04
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
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PII: en14040821, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.29503
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https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040821
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Apr 13, 2023
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