LAPSE:2023.27142
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.27142
From Niche to Market—An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Economic Uptake of Electro-Fuels (Power-to-Fuel) in the German Energy System
Christian Schnuelle, Kasper Kisjes, Torben Stuehrmann, Pablo Thier, Igor Nikolic, Arnim von Gleich, Stefan Goessling-Reisemann
April 4, 2023
The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc electrification and decarbonization seem to be unfeasible. Power-to-fuel (P2F) technologies may contribute to bridge the gap, as renewable energy can be transferred into hydrogen and hydrocarbon-based synthetic fuels. However, the renewable fuels production is far from economically competitive with conventional fuels. With a newly developed agent-based model, potential developments in the German energy markets were simulated for a horizon of 20 years from 2016 to 2035. The model was constructed through a participatory modeling process with relevant actors and stakeholders in the field. Model findings suggest that adjusted regulatory framework conditions (e.g., exemptions from electricity surtaxes, accurate prices for CO2-certificates, strong start-up subsidies, and drastic emission reduction quotas) are key factors for economically feasible P2F installations and will contribute to its large-scale integration into the German energy system. While plant capacities do not exceed 0.042 GW in a business-as-usual scenarios, the above-mentioned adjustments lead to plant capacities of at least 3.25 GW in 2035 with concurrent reduction in product prices.
Keywords
agent-based modeling, Energiewende, Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) Umlage, European Union emission trading system (EU ETS), Germany’s energy transition, power-to-fuel, power-to-gas, power-to-liquid, Synthetic Fuels
Suggested Citation
Schnuelle C, Kisjes K, Stuehrmann T, Thier P, Nikolic I, von Gleich A, Goessling-Reisemann S. From Niche to Market—An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Economic Uptake of Electro-Fuels (Power-to-Fuel) in the German Energy System. (2023). LAPSE:2023.27142
Author Affiliations
Schnuelle C: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany [ORCID]
Kisjes K: Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Grote Kruisstraat 2/1, 9712 TS Groningen, The Netherlands
Stuehrmann T: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Thier P: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Nikolic I: Department of Multi-Actor Systems, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
von Gleich A: Department of Technology Development and Design, University of Bremen, Badgasteiner Str. 1, 28359 Bremen, Germany [ORCID]
Goessling-Reisemann S: Department of Resilient Energy Systems, University of Bremen, Enrique-Schmidt-Straße 7, 28359 Bremen, Germany
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
20
Article Number
E5522
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-10-21
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en13205522, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.27142
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doi:10.3390/en13205522
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