LAPSE:2023.25191
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.25191
Electricity Demand Forecasting with Use of Artificial Intelligence: The Case of Gokceada Island
Mustafa Saglam, Catalina Spataru, Omer Ali Karaman
March 28, 2023
This study reviews a selection of approaches that have used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Multi Linear Regression (MLR) to forecast electricity demand for Gokceada Island. Artificial Neural Networks, Particle Swarm Optimization, and Linear Regression methods are frequently used in the literature. Imports, exports, car numbers, and tourist-passenger numbers are used as based on input values from 2014 to 2020 for Gokceada Island, and the electricity energy demands up to 2040 are estimated as an output value. The results obtained were analyzed using statistical error metrics such as R2, MSE, RMSE, and MAE. The confidence interval analysis of the methods was performed. The correlation matrix is used to show the relationship between the actual value and method outputs and the relationship between independent and dependent variables. It was observed that ANN yields the highest confidence interval of 95% among the method utilized, and the statistical error metrics have the highest correlation for ANN methods between electricity demand output and actual data.
Keywords
artificial neural networks, electricity demand forecast, multi linear regression, Particle Swarm Optimization
Suggested Citation
Saglam M, Spataru C, Karaman OA. Electricity Demand Forecasting with Use of Artificial Intelligence: The Case of Gokceada Island. (2023). LAPSE:2023.25191
Author Affiliations
Saglam M: Energy Institute, Bartlett School Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK [ORCID]
Spataru C: Energy Institute, Bartlett School Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
Karaman OA: Department of Electronic and Automation, Vocational School, Batman University, Batman 72100, Turkey
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
16
First Page
5950
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-08-17
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en15165950, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.25191
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doi:10.3390/en15165950
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Mar 28, 2023
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