LAPSE:2023.23183
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.23183
Machine Learning Modeling of Horizontal Photovoltaics Using Weather and Location Data
Christil Pasion, Torrey Wagner, Clay Koschnick, Steven Schuldt, Jada Williams, Kevin Hallinan
March 27, 2023
Solar energy is a key renewable energy source; however, its intermittent nature and potential for use in distributed systems make power prediction an important aspect of grid integration. This research analyzed a variety of machine learning techniques to predict power output for horizontal solar panels using 14 months of data collected from 12 northern-hemisphere locations. We performed our data collection and analysis in the absence of irradiation data—an approach not commonly found in prior literature. Using latitude, month, hour, ambient temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed, and cloud ceiling as independent variables, a distributed random forest regression algorithm modeled the combined dataset with an R2 value of 0.94. As a comparative measure, other machine learning algorithms resulted in R2 values of 0.50−0.94. Additionally, the data from each location was modeled separately with R2 values ranging from 0.91 to 0.97, indicating a range of consistency across all sites. Using an input variable permutation approach with the random forest algorithm, we found that the three most important variables for power prediction were ambient temperature, humidity, and cloud ceiling. The analysis showed that machine learning potentially allowed for accurate power prediction while avoiding the challenges associated with modeled irradiation data.
Keywords
Machine Learning, photovoltaics, power prediction, random forest, Solar Panels
Suggested Citation
Pasion C, Wagner T, Koschnick C, Schuldt S, Williams J, Hallinan K. Machine Learning Modeling of Horizontal Photovoltaics Using Weather and Location Data. (2023). LAPSE:2023.23183
Author Affiliations
Pasion C: Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433, USA
Wagner T: Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433, USA [ORCID]
Koschnick C: Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433, USA
Schuldt S: Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433, USA [ORCID]
Williams J: Graduate School of Engineering and Management, Air Force Institute of Technology, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH 45433, USA
Hallinan K: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of Dayton, Dayton, OH 45469, USA [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
10
Article Number
E2570
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-05-19
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en13102570, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.23183
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doi:10.3390/en13102570
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Mar 27, 2023
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