LAPSE:2023.17673
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.17673
Electrical Load Demand Forecasting Using Feed-Forward Neural Networks
Eduardo Machado, Tiago Pinto, Vanessa Guedes, Hugo Morais
March 6, 2023
Abstract
The higher share of renewable energy sources in the electrical grid and the electrification of significant sectors, such as transport and heating, are imposing a tremendous challenge on the operation of the energy system due to the increase in the complexity, variability and uncertainties associated with these changes. The recent advances of computational technologies and the ever-growing data availability allowed the development of sophisticated and efficient algorithms that can process information at a very fast pace. In this sense, the use of machine learning models has been gaining increased attention from the electricity sector as it can provide accurate forecasts of system behaviour from energy generation to consumption, helping all the stakeholders to optimize their activities. This work develops and proposes a methodology to enhance load demand forecasts using a machine learning model, namely a feed-forward neural network (FFNN), by incorporating an error correction step that involves the prediction of the initial forecast errors by another FFNN. The results showed that the proposed methodology was able to significantly improve the quality of load demand forecasts, demonstrating a better performance than the benchmark models.
Keywords
error correction, feed-forward neural network, load demand forecast
Suggested Citation
Machado E, Pinto T, Guedes V, Morais H. Electrical Load Demand Forecasting Using Feed-Forward Neural Networks. (2023). LAPSE:2023.17673
Author Affiliations
Machado E: Instituto Superior Técnico-IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal; Department of Materials, Energy Efficiency and Complementary Generation, Electrical Energy Research Center (Cepel), University City, Fundão Island, Rio de Janeiro 21941-9
Pinto T: GECAD—Research Group on Intelligent Engineering and Computing for Advanced Innovation and Development, Rua DR. Antonio Bernardino de Almeida, 431, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal [ORCID]
Guedes V: Department of Materials, Energy Efficiency and Complementary Generation, Electrical Energy Research Center (Cepel), University City, Fundão Island, Rio de Janeiro 21941-911, Brazil
Morais H: Instituto Superior Técnico-IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal; INESC-ID, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico-IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
22
First Page
7644
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-11-16
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en14227644, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.17673
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https://doi.org/10.3390/en14227644
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