LAPSE:2023.15727
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.15727
Using the Data of Geocryological Monitoring and Geocryological Forecast for Risk Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change
Victor Osipov, Oleg Aksyutin, Dmitrii Sergeev, Gennadii Tipenko, Alexandre Ishkov
March 2, 2023
Abstract
Permafrost monitoring should be organized in different ways within undisturbed landscapes and in areas with technogenic impacts. The state and dynamics of permafrost are described by special indicators. It helps to characterize seasonal and long-term tendencies and link them with permafrost hazards estimation. The risk is determined by the hazard probability and the vulnerability of infrastructure elements. The hazard does not have integral indicators, but is determined by separate spatial and temporal characteristics. The spatial characteristics include the ground’s physical and cryolithological features that are linked with the history of the permafrost. The temporal characteristics are associated with the future evolution of the climate and anthropogenic pressures. The geocryological monitoring content and geocryological forecasting are interdependent and should be implemented together. The adaptation recommendations are based on the analytical algorithms and use the results of permafrost monitoring and permafrost state forecasting. The development of an adaptation program is a recognition of the company’s responsibility for the sustainable development of resource management territories. Risk management uses the methods of the flexible ground temperature regime management.
Keywords
climate change adaptation, geohazards, infrastructure stability, permafrost dynamics, permafrost state
Suggested Citation
Osipov V, Aksyutin O, Sergeev D, Tipenko G, Ishkov A. Using the Data of Geocryological Monitoring and Geocryological Forecast for Risk Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change. (2023). LAPSE:2023.15727
Author Affiliations
Osipov V: Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS, IEG RAS, 101000 Moscow, Russia
Aksyutin O: Gazprom, 190900 St. Petersburg, Russia
Sergeev D: Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS, IEG RAS, 101000 Moscow, Russia [ORCID]
Tipenko G: Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS, IEG RAS, 101000 Moscow, Russia
Ishkov A: Gazprom, 190900 St. Petersburg, Russia
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
3
First Page
879
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-01-26
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
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PII: en15030879, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.15727
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https://doi.org/10.3390/en15030879
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