LAPSE:2023.13734
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.13734
Machine Learning Short-Term Energy Consumption Forecasting for Microgrids in a Manufacturing Plant
March 1, 2023
Abstract
Energy production and supply are important challenges for civilisation. Renewable energy sources present an increased share of the energy supply. Under these circumstances, small-scale grids operating in small areas as fully functioning energy systems are becoming an interesting solution. One crucial element to the success of micro-grid structures is the accurate forecasting of energy consumption by large customers, such as factories. This study aimed to develop a universal forecasting tool for energy consumption by end-use consumers. The tool estimates energy use based on real energy-consumption data obtained from a factory or a production machine. This model allows the end-users to be equipped with an energy demand prediction, enabling them to participate more effectively in the smart grid energy market. A single, long short-term memory (LSTM)-layer-based artificial neural network model for short-term energy demand prediction was developed. The model was based on a manufacturing plant’s energy consumption data. The model is characterised by high prediction capability, and it predicted energy consumption, with a mean absolute error value of 0.0464. The developed model was compared with two other methodologies.
Energy production and supply are important challenges for civilisation. Renewable energy sources present an increased share of the energy supply. Under these circumstances, small-scale grids operating in small areas as fully functioning energy systems are becoming an interesting solution. One crucial element to the success of micro-grid structures is the accurate forecasting of energy consumption by large customers, such as factories. This study aimed to develop a universal forecasting tool for energy consumption by end-use consumers. The tool estimates energy use based on real energy-consumption data obtained from a factory or a production machine. This model allows the end-users to be equipped with an energy demand prediction, enabling them to participate more effectively in the smart grid energy market. A single, long short-term memory (LSTM)-layer-based artificial neural network model for short-term energy demand prediction was developed. The model was based on a manufacturing plant’s energy consumption data. The model is characterised by high prediction capability, and it predicted energy consumption, with a mean absolute error value of 0.0464. The developed model was compared with two other methodologies.
Record ID
Keywords
energy consumption, LSTM, microgrids, short-term forecasting, smart grids
Subject
Suggested Citation
Slowik M, Urban W. Machine Learning Short-Term Energy Consumption Forecasting for Microgrids in a Manufacturing Plant. (2023). LAPSE:2023.13734
Author Affiliations
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
9
First Page
3382
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-05-06
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
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PII: en15093382, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.13734
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https://doi.org/10.3390/en15093382
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Mar 1, 2023
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