Abstract
The residual biogas potential (RBP) test is a procedure to ensure the anaerobic digestion process performance and digestate stability. Standard protocols for RBP require a significant time for sample preparation, characterisation and testing of the rig setup followed by batch experiments of a minimum of 28 days. To reduce the experimental time to obtain the RBP result, four biogas kinetic models were evaluated for their strength of fit for biogas production data from RBP tests. It was found that the pseudo-parallel first-order model and the first-order autoregressive (AR (1)) model provide a high strength of fit and can predict the RBP result with good accuracy (absolute percentage errors < 10%) using experimental biogas production data of 15 days. Multivariate regression with decision trees (DTs) was adopted in this study to predict model parameters for the AR (1) model from substrate physicochemical parameters. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the predicted AR (1) model coefficients, the constants and the RBP test results at day 28 across DTs with 20 training set samples are 4.76%, 72.04% and 52.13%, respectively. Using five additional data points to perform the leave-one-out cross-validation method, the MAPEs decreased to 4.31%, 59.29% and 45.62%. This indicates that the prediction accuracy of DTs can be further improved with a larger training dataset. A Gaussian Process Regressor was guided by the DT-predicted AR (1) model to provide probability distribution information for the biogas yield prediction.