LAPSE:2020.0735
Published Article
LAPSE:2020.0735
Forecasting Energy-Related CO₂ Emissions Employing a Novel SSA-LSSVM Model: Considering Structural Factors in China
Huiru Zhao, Guo Huang, Ning Yan
June 23, 2020
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions forecasting is becoming more important due to increasing climatic problems, which contributes to developing scientific climate policies and making reasonable energy plans. Considering that the influential factors of CO₂ emissions are multiplex and the relationships between factors and CO₂ emissions are complex and non-linear, a novel CO₂ forecasting model called SSA-LSSVM, which utilizes the Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA) to optimize the two parameters of the least squares support sector machine (LSSVM) model, is proposed in this paper. The influential factors of CO₂ emissions, including the gross domestic product (GDP), population, energy consumption, economic structure, energy structure, urbanization rate, and energy intensity, are regarded as the input variables of the SSA-LSSVM model. The proposed model is verified to show a better forecasting performance compared with the selected models, including the single LSSVM model, the LSSVM model optimized by the particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO-LSSVM), and the back propagation (BP) neural network model, on CO₂ emissions in China from 2014 to 2016. The comparative analysis indicates the SSA-LSSVM model is greatly superior and has the potential to improve the accuracy and reliability of CO₂ emissions forecasting. CO₂ emissions in China from 2017 to 2020 are forecast combined with the 13th Five-Year Plan for social, economic and energy development. The comparison of CO₂ emissions of China in 2020 shows that structural factors significantly affect CO₂ emission forecasting results. The average annual growth of CO₂ emissions slows down significantly due to a series of policies and actions taken by the Chinese government, which means China can keep the promise that greenhouse gas emissions will start to drop after 2030.
Keywords
CO2 emissions forecasting, influential factors, least squares support sector machine (LSSVM), parameters optimization, Salp Swarm Algorithm (SSA)
Suggested Citation
Zhao H, Huang G, Yan N. Forecasting Energy-Related CO₂ Emissions Employing a Novel SSA-LSSVM Model: Considering Structural Factors in China. (2020). LAPSE:2020.0735
Author Affiliations
Zhao H: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China
Huang G: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China
Yan N: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China; Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, North China Electric Power University, Changping, Beijing 102206, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
11
Issue
4
Article Number
E781
Year
2018
Publication Date
2018-03-28
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en11040781, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2020.0735
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doi:10.3390/en11040781
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Jun 23, 2020
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Calvin Tsay
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