LAPSE:2020.0673
Published Article
LAPSE:2020.0673
A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting
Chengshi Tian, Yan Hao
June 23, 2020
Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module) is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.
Keywords
combined model, forecasting performance, nonlinear forecasting, short-term load forecasting
Suggested Citation
Tian C, Hao Y. A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting. (2020). LAPSE:2020.0673
Author Affiliations
Tian C: School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
Hao Y: School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
11
Issue
4
Article Number
E712
Year
2018
Publication Date
2018-03-22
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en11040712, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en11040712
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Jun 23, 2020
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Calvin Tsay
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