LAPSE:2019.0032
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0032
Study of Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecast Based on Error Calibration under Typical Climate Categories
Yajing Gao, Jing Zhu, Huaxin Cheng, Fushen Xue, Qing Xie, Peng Li
January 7, 2019
With the increasing permeability of photovoltaic (PV) power production, the uncertainties and randomness of PV power have played a critical role in the operation and dispatch of the power grid and amplified the abandon rate of PV power. Consequently, the accuracy of PV power forecast urgently needs to be improved. Based on the amplitude and fluctuation characteristics of the PV power forecast error, a short-term PV output forecast method that considers the error calibration is proposed. Firstly, typical climate categories are defined to classify the historical PV power data. On the one hand, due to the non-negligible diversity of error amplitudes in different categories, the probability density distributions of relative error (RE) are generated for each category. Distribution fitting is performed to simulate probability density function (PDF) curves, and the RE samples are drawn from the fitted curves to obtain the sampling values of the RE. On the other hand, based on the fluctuation characteristic of RE, the recent RE data are utilized to analyze the error fluctuation conditions of the forecast points so as to obtain the compensation values of the RE. The compensation values are adopted to sequence the sampling values by choosing the sampling values closest to the compensation ones to be the fitted values of the RE. On this basis, the fitted values of the RE are employed to correct the forecast values of PV power and improve the forecast accuracy.
Keywords
error calibration, Latin hypercube sampling, nonparametric kernel density estimation, photovoltaic power forecast, typical climate categories
Suggested Citation
Gao Y, Zhu J, Cheng H, Xue F, Xie Q, Li P. Study of Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecast Based on Error Calibration under Typical Climate Categories. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0032
Author Affiliations
Gao Y: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Zhu J: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Cheng H: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Xue F: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Xie Q: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Li P: School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
7
Article Number
E523
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-07-08
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9070523, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0032
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doi:10.3390/en9070523
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Calvin Tsay
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