LAPSE:2018.0636
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0636
Application of Markov Model to Estimate Individual Condition Parameters for Transformers
Amran Mohd Selva, Norhafiz Azis, Muhammad Sharil Yahaya, Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab Kadir, Jasronita Jasni, Young Zaidey Yang Ghazali, Mohd Aizam Talib
September 21, 2018
This paper presents a study to estimate individual condition parameters of the transformer population based on Markov Model (MM). The condition parameters under study were hydrogen (H₂), methane (CH₄), acetylene (C₂H₂), ethylene (C₂H₄), ethane (C₂H₆), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO₂), dielectric breakdown voltage, interfacial tension, colour, acidity, water content, and 2-furfuraldehyde (2-FAL). First, the individual condition parameter of the transformer population was ranked and sorted based on recommended limits as per IEEE Std. C57. 104-2008 and IEEE Std. C57.106-2015. Next, the mean for each of the condition parameters was computed and the transition probabilities for each condition parameters were obtained based on non-linear optimization technique. Next, the future states probability distribution was computed based on the MM prediction model. Chi-square test and percentage of absolute error analysis were carried out to find the goodness-of-fit between predicted and computed condition parameters. It is found that estimation for majority of the individual condition parameter of the transformer population can be carried out by MM. The Chi-square test reveals that apart from CH₄ and C₂H₄, the condition parameters are outside the rejection region that indicates agreement between predicted and computed values. It is also observed that the lowest and highest percentages of differences between predicted and computed values of all the condition parameters are 81.46% and 98.52%, respectively.
Keywords
Chi-square test, condition parameters estimation, Condition-Based Monitoring (CBM), Markov Model (MM), non-linear optimization, percentage of absolute error
Suggested Citation
Mohd Selva A, Azis N, Yahaya MS, Ab Kadir MZA, Jasni J, Yang Ghazali YZ, Talib MA. Application of Markov Model to Estimate Individual Condition Parameters for Transformers. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0636
Author Affiliations
Mohd Selva A: Centre for Electromagnetic & Lightning Protection (CELP), Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia [ORCID]
Azis N: Centre for Electromagnetic & Lightning Protection (CELP), Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia; Institute of Advanced Technology (ITMA), Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia
Yahaya MS: Centre for Electromagnetic & Lightning Protection (CELP), Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia; Faculty of Engineering Technology, Universiti Teknikal Malaysia Melaka, Durian Tunggal, Melaka 76100, Malaysia
Ab Kadir MZA: Centre for Electromagnetic & Lightning Protection (CELP), Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia; Institute of Power Engineering (IPE), Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia [ORCID]
Jasni J: Centre for Electromagnetic & Lightning Protection (CELP), Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang 43400, Selangor, Malaysia
Yang Ghazali YZ: Distribution Division, Tenaga Nasional Berhad, Wisma TNB, Jalan Timur, Petaling Jaya 46200, Selangor, Malaysia
Talib MA: TNB Research Sdn. Bhd., No.1, Lorong Ayer Itam, Kawasan Institut Penyelidikan, Kajang 43000, Selangor, Malaysia
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
11
Issue
8
Article Number
E2114
Year
2018
Publication Date
2018-08-14
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en11082114, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2018.0636
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https://doi.org/10.3390/en11082114
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Sep 21, 2018
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Calvin Tsay
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