LAPSE:2023.3647
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.3647
Production Controls in Heavy Oil and Bitumen Markets: Surplus Transfer Due to Alberta’s Curtailment Policy
February 22, 2023
In January 2019, the Canadian province of Alberta enacted limits on crude oil and bitumen production. These production controls, a policy referred to as curtailment, represent a shift for a government that historically avoided market intervention. The policy was designed to shrink a growing and prolonged price differential between the Western Canadian Select price of oil, the key benchmark for Alberta’s heavy oil production, and the West Texas Intermediate benchmark. The curtailment created artificial scarcity, shrinking the price differential from more than $40 USD per barrel in November 2018 to less than $15 USD per barrel in February 2019. In the process, this policy transferred market surplus from refiners, mainly those in the US Midwest, to producers in Alberta. We review this large-scale market intervention and calculate the magnitude of the economic transfer. We find the curtailment increased producer surplus by $659M CAD per month and reduced consumer surplus by $763M per month. At the margin, every $1 reduction in consumer surplus translates into a $0.71 gain in producer surplus. We further show that if the Government of Alberta’s objective was to maximize short-run producer surplus, it should further scale back production, setting the curtailment rate at 25% rather than the initial 8.7%.
Keywords
market surplus, Oil Sands, production controls
Suggested Citation
Schaufele B, Winter J. Production Controls in Heavy Oil and Bitumen Markets: Surplus Transfer Due to Alberta’s Curtailment Policy. (2023). LAPSE:2023.3647
Author Affiliations
Schaufele B: Ivey Business School, Western University, London, ON N6G 0N1, Canada [ORCID]
Winter J: School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2P 1H9, Canada; Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
16
Issue
3
First Page
1389
Year
2023
Publication Date
2023-01-30
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en16031389, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.3647
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doi:10.3390/en16031389
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Feb 22, 2023
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