LAPSE:2019.0252
Published Article
LAPSE:2019.0252
Analysis and Modeling for China’s Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Hybrid Method Based on Multiple Regression and Extreme Learning Machine: A View from Carbon Emission
Yi Liang, Dongxiao Niu, Ye Cao, Wei-Chiang Hong
February 5, 2019
The power industry is the main battlefield of CO₂ emission reduction, which plays an important role in the implementation and development of the low carbon economy. The forecasting of electricity demand can provide a scientific basis for the country to formulate a power industry development strategy and further promote the sustained, healthy and rapid development of the national economy. Under the goal of low-carbon economy, medium and long term electricity demand forecasting will have very important practical significance. In this paper, a new hybrid electricity demand model framework is characterized as follows: firstly, integration of grey relation degree (GRD) with induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging operator (IOWHA) to propose a new weight determination method of hybrid forecasting model on basis of forecasting accuracy as induced variables is presented; secondly, utilization of the proposed weight determination method to construct the optimal hybrid forecasting model based on extreme learning machine (ELM) forecasting model and multiple regression (MR) model; thirdly, three scenarios in line with the level of realization of various carbon emission targets and dynamic simulation of effect of low-carbon economy on future electricity demand are discussed. The resulting findings show that, the proposed model outperformed and concentrated some monomial forecasting models, especially in boosting the overall instability dramatically. In addition, the development of a low-carbon economy will increase the demand for electricity, and have an impact on the adjustment of the electricity demand structure.
Keywords
carbon emission, electricity demand forecasting, extreme learning machine (ELM), grey relation degree (GRD), induced ordered weighted harmonic averaging operator (IOWHA), multiple regression (MR)
Suggested Citation
Liang Y, Niu D, Cao Y, Hong WC. Analysis and Modeling for China’s Electricity Demand Forecasting Using a Hybrid Method Based on Multiple Regression and Extreme Learning Machine: A View from Carbon Emission. (2019). LAPSE:2019.0252
Author Affiliations
Liang Y: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Niu D: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Cao Y: College of Management and Economy, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China
Hong WC: Department of Information Management, Oriental Institute of Technology, New Taipei 220, Taiwan [ORCID]
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
9
Issue
11
Article Number
E941
Year
2016
Publication Date
2016-11-11
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en9110941, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2019.0252
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doi:10.3390/en9110941
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Feb 5, 2019
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Calvin Tsay
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