LAPSE:2018.0704
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0704
The Financial Effect of the Electricity Price Forecasts’ Inaccuracy on a Hydro-Based Generation Company
October 4, 2018
Electricity price forecasting has a paramount effect on generation companies (GenCos) due to the scheduling of the electricity generation scheme according to electricity price forecasts. Inaccurate electricity price forecasts could cause important loss of profits to the suppliers. In this paper, the financial effect of inaccurate electricity price forecasts on a hydro-based GenCo is examined. Electricity price forecasts of five individual and four hybrid forecast models and the ex-post actual prices are used to schedule the hydro-based GenCo using Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). The financial effect measures of profit loss, Economic Loss Index (ELI) and Price Forecast Disadvantage Index (PFDI), as well as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the models are used for comparison of the data from 24 weeks of the year. According to the results, a hybrid model, 50% Artificial Neural Network (ANN)⁻50% Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), has the best performance in terms of financial effect. Furthermore, the forecast performance evaluation methods, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), are not necessarily coherent with inaccurate electricity price forecasts’ financial effect measures.
Keywords
electricity price forecasting, hydro-based generation company, mixed integer linear programming, profit loss, self-scheduling
Suggested Citation
Ugurlu U, Tas O, Kaya A, Oksuz I. The Financial Effect of the Electricity Price Forecasts’ Inaccuracy on a Hydro-Based Generation Company. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0704
Author Affiliations
Ugurlu U: Management Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, Besiktas, Istanbul 34367, Turkey [ORCID]
Tas O: Management Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, Besiktas, Istanbul 34367, Turkey [ORCID]
Kaya A: Industrial Engineering Department, Istanbul Technical University, Besiktas, Istanbul 34367, Turkey
Oksuz I: Biomedical Engineering Department, King’s College London, London SE1 7EU, UK [ORCID]
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Journal Name
Energies
Volume
11
Issue
8
Article Number
E2093
Year
2018
Publication Date
2018-08-11
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en11082093, Publication Type: Journal Article
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doi:10.3390/en11082093
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Oct 4, 2018
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