LAPSE:2018.0561
Published Article
LAPSE:2018.0561
Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models
Bartosz Uniejewski, Rafał Weron
September 21, 2018
Recent electricity price forecasting (EPF) studies suggest that the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) leads to well performing models that are generally better than those obtained from other variable selection schemes. By conducting an empirical study involving datasets from two major power markets (Nord Pool and PJM Interconnection), three expert models, two multi-parameter regression (called baseline) models and four variance stabilizing transformations combined with the seasonal component approach, we discuss the optimal way of implementing the LASSO. We show that using a complex baseline model with nearly 400 explanatory variables, a well chosen variance stabilizing transformation (asinh or N-PIT), and a procedure that recalibrates the LASSO regularization parameter once or twice a day indeed leads to significant accuracy gains compared to the typically considered EPF models. Moreover, by analyzing the structures of the best LASSO-estimated models, we identify the most important explanatory variables and thus provide guidelines to structuring better performing models.
Keywords
automated variable selection, day-ahead market, electricity spot price, LASSO, long-term seasonal component, variance stabilizing transformation
Suggested Citation
Uniejewski B, Weron R. Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models. (2018). LAPSE:2018.0561
Author Affiliations
Uniejewski B: Department of Operations Research, Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland; Faculty of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław,
Weron R: Department of Operations Research, Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland [ORCID]
[Login] to see author email addresses.
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
11
Issue
8
Article Number
E2039
Year
2018
Publication Date
2018-08-06
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en11082039, Publication Type: Journal Article
Record Map
Published Article

LAPSE:2018.0561
This Record
External Link

doi:10.3390/en11082039
Publisher Version
Download
Files
[Download 1v1.pdf] (1.9 MB)
Sep 21, 2018
Main Article
License
CC BY 4.0
Meta
Record Statistics
Record Views
640
Version History
[v1] (Original Submission)
Sep 21, 2018
 
Verified by curator on
Sep 21, 2018
This Version Number
v1
Citations
Most Recent
This Version
URL Here
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2018.0561
 
Original Submitter
Calvin Tsay
Links to Related Works
Directly Related to This Work
Publisher Version