LAPSE:2026.0403
Published Article

LAPSE:2026.0403
Predicting Ecotoxicity (HC50) Values Using Symbolic Regression for Transparent Life Cycle Assessment
June 12, 2026
Abstract
Accurate life cycle assessment (LCA) depends on robust characterization factors (CFs), which quantify impacts such as ecotoxicity through the integration of fate (FF), exposure (XF), and effect (EF) factors. While databases such as USEtox and Ecoinvent provide essential CFs, significant data gaps remain, particularly in ecotoxicity endpoints like hazardous concentration 50% (HC_50), which directly inform effect factor calculations. Existing machine learning models can predict such values, but they often lack interpretability, which limits trust and transparency in environmental modeling. To address this, a machine learning framework is applied that utilizes symbolic regression (SR) and genetic programming (GP) to predict missing HC_50 values from physicochemical descriptors. A dataset with 14 descriptors was used to train SR models capable of generating interpretable mathematical expressions that link chemical properties to HC_50 values. SR models were benchmarked against prominent black-box models such as random forest (RF) and neural network (NN) models. SR performance was consistent across multiple parameter configurations, while revealing recurring patterns in variable selection. These results demonstrate that symbolic regression can both predict ecotoxicity values with comparative accuracy and provide transparent functional relationships, thereby filling existing data gaps in characterization factors needed for a complete LCA.
Accurate life cycle assessment (LCA) depends on robust characterization factors (CFs), which quantify impacts such as ecotoxicity through the integration of fate (FF), exposure (XF), and effect (EF) factors. While databases such as USEtox and Ecoinvent provide essential CFs, significant data gaps remain, particularly in ecotoxicity endpoints like hazardous concentration 50% (HC_50), which directly inform effect factor calculations. Existing machine learning models can predict such values, but they often lack interpretability, which limits trust and transparency in environmental modeling. To address this, a machine learning framework is applied that utilizes symbolic regression (SR) and genetic programming (GP) to predict missing HC_50 values from physicochemical descriptors. A dataset with 14 descriptors was used to train SR models capable of generating interpretable mathematical expressions that link chemical properties to HC_50 values. SR models were benchmarked against prominent black-box models such as random forest (RF) and neural network (NN) models. SR performance was consistent across multiple parameter configurations, while revealing recurring patterns in variable selection. These results demonstrate that symbolic regression can both predict ecotoxicity values with comparative accuracy and provide transparent functional relationships, thereby filling existing data gaps in characterization factors needed for a complete LCA.
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Keywords
Life Cycle Assessment, Machine Learning, Symbolic Regression
Subject
Suggested Citation
Ahmed A, Kasera N, Torres AI. Predicting Ecotoxicity (HC50) Values Using Symbolic Regression for Transparent Life Cycle Assessment. Systems and Control Transactions 5:1592-1600 (2026) https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.195147
Author Affiliations
Ahmed A: Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
Kasera N: Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
Torres AI: Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA. Wilton E. Scott Institute for Energy Innovation, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
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Kasera N: Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
Torres AI: Department of Chemical Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA. Wilton E. Scott Institute for Energy Innovation, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, USA
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Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
5
First Page
1592
Last Page
1600
Year
2026
Publication Date
2026-06-12
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: 1592-1600-139-SCT-5-2026, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2026.0403
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https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.195147
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References Cited
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