LAPSE:2026.0341
Published Article

LAPSE:2026.0341
Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Gene Expression
June 12, 2026
Abstract
Stochastic gene regulatory networks exhibit complex dynamics that require efficient methods for parameter inference and uncertainty quantification. In this work, we propose a surrogate modelling framework that combines a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) formulation with polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to efficiently approximate the stochastic dynamics of gene expression models under parametric uncertainty. The approach represents the time evolution of low-order statistical moments as polynomial functions of uncertain kinetic parameters, enabling fast evaluations and tractable inference. The method is demonstrated on a self-regulating gene network, achieving accurate parameter estimation and a reduction of approximately two orders of magnitude in computational cost compared to direct PIDE-based optimisation.
Stochastic gene regulatory networks exhibit complex dynamics that require efficient methods for parameter inference and uncertainty quantification. In this work, we propose a surrogate modelling framework that combines a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) formulation with polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) to efficiently approximate the stochastic dynamics of gene expression models under parametric uncertainty. The approach represents the time evolution of low-order statistical moments as polynomial functions of uncertain kinetic parameters, enabling fast evaluations and tractable inference. The method is demonstrated on a self-regulating gene network, achieving accurate parameter estimation and a reduction of approximately two orders of magnitude in computational cost compared to direct PIDE-based optimisation.
Record ID
Keywords
Modelling and Simulations, Optimization, Surrogate Model
Subject
Suggested Citation
Galleguillos FP, Bhonsale SS, Impe JFV. Uncertainty Quantification of Stochastic Gene Expression. Systems and Control Transactions 5:1095-1101 (2026) https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.196541
Author Affiliations
Galleguillos FP: KU Leuven, Department of Chemical Engineering, BioTeC+, Gent, Belgium. Universitat Politècnica de València, Automatics and Industrial Informatics Research Institute (AI2), Valencia, Spain. Institute for Integrative Systems Biology (I2SysBio), Spanish Na [ORCID]
Bhonsale SS: KU Leuven, Department of Chemical Engineering, BioTeC+, Gent, Belgium [ORCID]
Impe JFV: KU Leuven, Department of Chemical Engineering, BioTeC+, Gent, Belgium [ORCID]
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Bhonsale SS: KU Leuven, Department of Chemical Engineering, BioTeC+, Gent, Belgium [ORCID]
Impe JFV: KU Leuven, Department of Chemical Engineering, BioTeC+, Gent, Belgium [ORCID]
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Journal Name
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
5
First Page
1095
Last Page
1101
Year
2026
Publication Date
2026-06-12
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: 1095-1101-212-SCT-5-2026, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2026.0341
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https://doi.org/10.69997/sct.196541
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[v1] (Original Submission)
Jun 12, 2026
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Jun 12, 2026
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References Cited
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