Abstract
The aviation sector represents one of the most pressing challenges in the energy transition due to its strong reliance on energy-dense liquid fuels and established fuel infrastructure. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), particularly from agricultural residues, offers a near-term mitigation pathway; however, large-scale adoption is shaped by policy mandates, infrastructure expansion, market price formation, and passenger demand responses. These coupled dynamics are difficult to capture using aggregate or equilibrium-based models. This study develops an agent-based model to analyze SAF transition pathways and applies it to India's civil aviation system. Results show that SAF adoption emerges from the coordination between infrastructure entry, cost learning, and market responses rather than mandate ambition alone. Even moderate mandates fall short of intended adoption levels without timely infrastructure expansion, while aggressive mandates become infeasible under binding supply and price constraints. Passenger demand feedbacks further influence outcomes by linking fuel cost increases to airline operations and route-level allocation decisions. The findings highlight infrastructure coordination and price formation as critical leverage points for aviation decarbonization and demonstrate the value of agent-based models for evaluating realistic SAF transition strategies under policy and market uncertainty.