Abstract
China's cement industry accounts for over half of global production and contributes 8% of global CO2 emissions, making its decarbonization critical for achieving climate targets. While carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) are essential deep decarbonization technologies, existing research has not adequately addressed the regional and temporal variations needed for optimal pathway selection across China's diverse provinces. This study develops a comprehensive whole-systems optimization model to design provincial-scale decarbonization pathways for China's cement industry from 2025 to 2060. The model reveals significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity in optimal technology combinations. Before 2050, traditional cement processes integrated with CCS (TCP-CCS) represent the dominant bridging technology for low-carbon transition. However, reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 necessitates an eventual shift toward widespread deployment of novel chemical processes combined with green hydrogen (NCP-H2) as the ultimate decarbonization pathway. Notably, regional natural gas prices significantly affect technology feasibility and deployment timing. The optimized transition pathway reduces unit clinker costs by approximately 58% compared to 2025 levels while successfully meeting the 2060 carbon neutrality target. This research framework provides quantitative decision support for policymakers to design cost-effective, province-specific decarbonization strategies that align with local resource endowments and economic conditions, ultimately advancing deep decarbonization across China's industrial sector.