Abstract
This study tackles the challenge of accurate yield prediction in fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) units by comparing conventional supervised regression with time series forecasting methods using industrial data collected from the distributed control system (DCS) of an FCC plant. We introduce a shifted forecast paradigm that preserves temporal relationships between predictors and targets. Our preprocessing pipeline, which employs trimmed mean smoothing, addresses common industrial data challenges. Results demonstrate that the forecasting approach significantly outperforms supervised regression, achieving a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.56% for 3-hour shifted predictions compared to 6.20% for supervised regression. The model maintains robust performance even with extended shifts during predictions, showing an MAPE of 3.55% for 14-day forecasts. This research provides valuable insights for implementing predictive analytics in industrial FCC operations, demonstrating the superiority of forecasting methods over traditional supervised regression approaches for process yield prediction.