Abstract
Transition from fossil fuels to clean energy technologies (CETs) is critical, but material shortages threaten to hinder progress. This study analyzes the potential deficits in 14 key materials – such as lithium, nickel, and cadmium – based on capacity projections for CETs by eight Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for 2020-2050. It focuses on technologies including battery storage, concentrated solar power (CSP), electrolyzers, solar photovoltaics (PV), and wind turbines. Our findings show that these materials could face shortages of up to 97% by 2050. To meet rising demand, material production rates must increase sharply, with some materials like cadmium, selenium, and tellurium requiring about 31% increases, peaking in this decade. Immediate actions are needed to accelerate production and improve recycling efforts. However, recycling targets, such as 325% for lithium, seem highly challenging to achieve. Without these measures, material shortages could delay CET deployment, risking Paris Agreement goals. To prevent these disruptions, we call for: (i) revising CET capacity projections, (ii) urgent planning for mining expansion, and (iii) a significant increase in recycling infrastructure to ensure a sustainable energy transition.